The COST 731 Action : a review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems

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Title: The COST 731 Action : a review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems
Authors: Rossa, Andrea
Liechti, Katharina
Zappa, Massimiliano
Bruen, Michael
Germann, Urs
Haase, Günther
Keil, Christian
Krahe, P. (Peter)
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Date: May-2010
Abstract: Quantifying uncertainty in flood forecasting is a difficult task, given the multiple and strongly nonlinear model components involved in such a system. Much effort has been and is being invested in the quest of dealing with uncertain precipitation observations and forecasts and the propagation of such uncertainties through hydrological and hydraulic models predicting river discharges and risk for inundation. The COST 731 Action is one of these and constitutes a European initiative which deals with the quantification of forecast uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecast systems. COST 731 addresses three major lines of development: (1) combining meteorological and hydrological models to form a forecast chain, (2) propagating uncertainty information through this chain and make it available to end users in a suitable form, (3) advancing high-resolution numerical weather prediction precipitation forecasts by using non-conventional observations from, for instance, radar to determine details in the initial conditions on scales smaller than what can be resolved by conventional observing systems. Recognizing the interdisciplinarity of the challenge COST 731 has organized its work forming Working Groups at the interfaces between the different scientific disciplines involved, i.e. between observation and atmospheric (and hydrological) modeling (WG-1), between atmospheric and hydrologic modelling (WG-2) and between hydrologic modelling and end-users (WG-3). This paper summarizes the COST 731 activities and its context, provides a review of the recent progress made in dealing with uncertainties in flood forecasting, and sets the scene for the papers of this Thematic Issue. In particular, a bibliometric analysis highlights the strong recent increase in addressing the uncertainty analysis in flood forecasting from an integrated perspective. Such a perspective necessarily involves the area of meteorology, hydrology, and decision making in order to take operational advantage of the scientific progress, an aspect in which COST 731 is successfully contributing to furthering the flood damage mitigation capabilities in Europe.
Funding Details: Science Foundation Ireland
Other funder
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: Elsevier
Journal: Atmospheric Research
Volume: 100
Issue: 2-3
Start page: 150
End page: 167
Copyright (published version): 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: UncertaintyFlood forecastingRadarNWPEPSCOSTMAP D-PHASE
Subject LCSH: Uncertainty (Information theory)
Flood forecasting
Radar meteorology
Numerical weather forecasting
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.11.016
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Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed 2011-08-03T11:06:14Z
Appears in Collections:Centre for Water Resources Research Collection
Urban Institute Ireland Research Collection
Critical Infrastructure Group Research Collection
Civil Engineering Research Collection

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