Change points and temporal dependence in reconstructions of annual temperature : did Europe experience a little Ice Age?

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Title: Change points and temporal dependence in reconstructions of annual temperature : did Europe experience a little Ice Age?
Authors: Kelly, Morgan
Ó Gráda, Cormac
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3632
Date: Mar-2012
Abstract: We analyze the timing and extent of northern European temperature falls during the Little Ice Age, using standard temperature reconstructions. However, we can find little evidence of long swings or structural breaks in European weather before the twentieth century. Instead, European weather between the fifteenth and nineteenth centuries resembles uncorrelated draws from a distribution with a constant mean (although there are decades of markedly lower summer temperature); with the same behaviour holding more tentatively back to the twelfth century. Our results suggest that the existing consensus about a Little Ice Age in Europe may stem from a Slutsky effect, where the standard climatological practice of smoothing data before analysis gives the spurious appearance of irregular oscillations.
Funding Details: European Research Council
Type of material: Working Paper
Publisher: University College Dublin. School of Economics
Keywords: Little Ice Age;Slutsky effect
Subject LCSH: Europe--Climate--History
Climatic changes--Mathematical models
Language: en
Status of Item: Not peer reviewed
Appears in Collections:Economics Working Papers & Policy Papers

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