Options
Change points and temporal dependence in reconstructions of annual temperature : did Europe experience a little Ice Age?
Author(s)
Date Issued
2012-03
Date Available
2012-06-12T14:36:20Z
Abstract
We analyze the timing and extent of northern European temperature falls during the Little Ice Age, using standard temperature reconstructions. However, we can find little evidence of long swings or structural breaks in European weather before the twentieth century. Instead, European weather between the fifteenth and nineteenth centuries resembles uncorrelated draws from a distribution with a constant mean (although there are decades of markedly lower summer temperature); with the same behaviour holding more tentatively back to the twelfth century. Our results suggest that the existing consensus about a Little Ice Age in Europe may stem from a Slutsky effect, where the standard climatological practice of smoothing data before analysis gives the spurious appearance of irregular oscillations.
Sponsorship
European Research Council
Type of Material
Working Paper
Publisher
University College Dublin. School of Economics
Series
UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series
WP12/10
Keywords
Subject – LCSH
Europe--Climate--History
Climatic changes--Mathematical models
Web versions
Language
English
Status of Item
Not peer reviewed
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
File(s)
Owning collection
Views
1880
Last Month
2
2
Acquisition Date
Mar 28, 2024
Mar 28, 2024
Downloads
485
Acquisition Date
Mar 28, 2024
Mar 28, 2024