Finding the Distribution of Bridge Lifetime Load Effect by Predictive Likelihood
|Title:||Finding the Distribution of Bridge Lifetime Load Effect by Predictive Likelihood||Authors:||Caprani, Colin C.; O'Brien, Eugene J.||Permanent link:||http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4160||Date:||Jul-2006||Online since:||2013-03-13T17:16:53Z||Abstract:||To assess the safety of an existing bridge, the loads to which it may be subject in its lifetime are required. Statistical analysis is used to extrapolate a sample of load effect values from the simulation period to the required design period. Complex statistical methods are often used and the end result is usually a single value of characteristic load effect. Such a deterministic result is at odds with the underlying stochastic nature of the problem. In this paper, predictive likelihood is shown to be a method by which the distribution of the lifetime extreme load effect may be determined. A basic application to the prediction of lifetime Gross vehicle Weight (GVW) is given. Results are also presented for some cases of bridge loading, compared to a return period approach and important differences are identified. The implications for the assessment of existing bridges are discussed.||Type of material:||Conference Publication||Publisher:||ASRANet Ltd||Keywords:||Bridge loads; Predictive likelihood; Load effect||Other versions:||http://www.maritime-conferences.com/asranet2010-conference/asranet2006/PDF/019_097_Caprani%20&%20OBrien%20-%20Paper%2097.pdf||Language:||en||Status of Item:||Not peer reviewed||Is part of:||3rd International ASRANet Colloquium, editors P.K. Das and M.K. Chryssanthopolous, University of Glasgow, 2006||Conference Details:||3rd International ASRANet Colloquium, held at the University of Glasgow, 10-12 July 2006.|
|Appears in Collections:||Civil Engineering Research Collection|
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