Finding the Distribution of Bridge Lifetime Load Effect by Predictive Likelihood
|Title:||Finding the Distribution of Bridge Lifetime Load Effect by Predictive Likelihood||Authors:||Caprani, Colin C.
O'Brien, Eugene J.
|Permanent link:||http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4160||Date:||Jul-2006||Abstract:||To assess the safety of an existing bridge, the loads to which it may be subject in its lifetime are required. Statistical analysis is used to extrapolate a sample of load effect values from the simulation period to the required design period. Complex statistical methods are often used and the end result is usually a single value of characteristic load effect. Such a deterministic result is at odds with the underlying stochastic nature of the problem. In this paper, predictive likelihood is shown to be a method by which the distribution of the lifetime extreme load effect may be determined. A basic application to the prediction of lifetime Gross vehicle Weight (GVW) is given. Results are also presented for some cases of bridge loading, compared to a return period approach and important differences are identified. The implications for the assessment of existing bridges are discussed.||Type of material:||Conference Publication||Publisher:||ASRANet Ltd||Keywords:||Bridge loads;Predictive likelihood;Load effect||Language:||en||Status of Item:||Not peer reviewed||Is part of:||3rd International ASRANet Colloquium, editors P.K. Das and M.K. Chryssanthopolous, University of Glasgow, 2006||Conference Details:||3rd International ASRANet Colloquium, held at the University of Glasgow, 10-12 July 2006.|
|Appears in Collections:||Civil Engineering Research Collection|
Show full item record
This item is available under the Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Ireland. No item may be reproduced for commercial purposes. For other possible restrictions on use please refer to the publisher's URL where this is made available, or to notes contained in the item itself. Other terms may apply.