Finding the Distribution of Bridge Lifetime Load Effect by Predictive Likelihood

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Title: Finding the Distribution of Bridge Lifetime Load Effect by Predictive Likelihood
Authors: Caprani, Colin C.O'Brien, Eugene J.
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Date: Jul-2006
Online since: 2013-03-13T17:16:53Z
Abstract: To assess the safety of an existing bridge, the loads to which it may be subject in its lifetime are required. Statistical analysis is used to extrapolate a sample of load effect values from the simulation period to the required design period. Complex statistical methods are often used and the end result is usually a single value of characteristic load effect. Such a deterministic result is at odds with the underlying stochastic nature of the problem. In this paper, predictive likelihood is shown to be a method by which the distribution of the lifetime extreme load effect may be determined. A basic application to the prediction of lifetime Gross vehicle Weight (GVW) is given. Results are also presented for some cases of bridge loading, compared to a return period approach and important differences are identified. The implications for the assessment of existing bridges are discussed.
Type of material: Conference Publication
Publisher: ASRANet Ltd
Keywords: Bridge loadsPredictive likelihoodLoad effect
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Language: en
Status of Item: Not peer reviewed
Is part of: 3rd International ASRANet Colloquium, editors P.K. Das and M.K. Chryssanthopolous, University of Glasgow, 2006
Conference Details: 3rd International ASRANet Colloquium, held at the University of Glasgow, 10-12 July 2006.
Appears in Collections:Civil Engineering Research Collection

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