Derivation of a national fuzzy phosporous export model using 84 Irish catchments

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Title: Derivation of a national fuzzy phosporous export model using 84 Irish catchments
Authors: Nasr, Ahmed Elssidig
Bruen, Michael
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Date: 15-Jan-2013
Online since: 2013-03-20T13:03:28Z
Abstract: Implementation of appropriate management strategies to mitigate diffuse phosphorus (P) pollution at the catchment scale is vitally important for the sustainable development of water resources in Ireland. An important element in the process of implementing such strategies is the prediction of their impacts on P concentrations in a catchment using a reliable mathematical model. In this study, a state-of-the-art adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has been used to develop a new national P model capable of estimating average annual ortho-P concentrations at un-gauged catchments. Data from 84 catchments dominated by diffuse P pollution were used in developing and testing the model. Six different split-sample scenarios were used to partition the total number of the catchments into two sets, one to calibrate and the other to validate the model. The k-means clustering algorithm was used to partition the sets into clusters of catchments with similar features. Then for each scenario and for each cluster case, 11 different models, each of which consists of a linear regression sub-model for each cluster, were formulated by using different input variables selected from among six spatially distributed variables including phosphorus desorption index (PDI), runoff risk index (RRI), geology (GEO), groundwater (GW), land use (LU), and soil (SO). The success of the new approach over the conventional lumped, empirical, modelling approach was evident from the improved results obtained for most of the cases. In addition the results highlighted the importance of using information on PDI and RRI as explanatory input variables to simulate the average annual ortho-P concentrations.
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: Elsevier
Journal: Science of the Total Environment
Volume: 443
Start page: 539
End page: 548
Copyright (published version): 2012 Elsevier B.V.
Keywords: Diffuse phosphorus pollutionOrtho-PhosphateEmpirical modelling approachFuzzy sub-setsNeuro-fuzzy modelK-means fuzzy clustering
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.10.063
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
Appears in Collections:Civil Engineering Research Collection

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