Impact of Wind Forecast Error Statistics Upon Unit Commitment

Title: Impact of Wind Forecast Error Statistics Upon Unit Commitment
Authors: Lowery, Colm
O'Malley, Mark
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Date: Oct-2012
Abstract: Driven by a trend towards renewable forms of generation, in particular wind, the nature of power system operation is changing. Systems with high wind penetrations should be capable of managing the uncertainty contained within the wind power forecasts. Stochastic unit commitment with rolling planning and input scenarios, based on wind forecasts, is one way of achieving this. Here, a scenario tree tool is developed which allows forecast error statistics to be altered and facilitates the study of how these statistics impact on unit commitment and system operation. It is shown that the largest individual impact on system operation is from the inclusion of variance and that variance, kurtosis, and skewness together produced the error information with the lowest system cost. Similar impacts for inaccurate error statistics are observed but generalization of these results will need more studies on a range of test systems.
Funding Details: Science Foundation Ireland
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Journal: IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy
Volume: 3
Issue: 4
Start page: 760
End page: 768
Copyright (published version): 2012 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Keywords: Power generationStochastic systemsPower engineering and energyWind power generation
DOI: 10.1109/TSTE.2012.2210150
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
Appears in Collections:ERC Research Collection
Electrical and Electronic Engineering Research Collection

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