A Note on the Size Distribution of Irish Mortgages
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Title: | A Note on the Size Distribution of Irish Mortgages | Authors: | Kelly, Morgan | Permanent link: | http://hdl.handle.net/10197/6375 | Date: | Aug-2011 | Online since: | 2015-02-19T12:51:08Z | Abstract: | Using Department of Environment data on number of mortgages by size category we find that the Weibull distribution accurately models the distribution of loans under €300,000 but severely underestimates the number of larger loans. We therefore use a a Pareto distribution for loans above this level. We estimate that from 2006 to 2008 there were fewer than 2,000 loans over €1 million with total value of €3 billion; and that there were 11,000 loans over €500,000 with estimated value of €9 billion. While the number of people taking out these mortgages is unknown, the conjecture that the largest 10,000 mortgage borrowers owe around €10 billion, largely for buy to let mortgages, does not appear implausible given these results. More tentatively, an ecological inference procedure suggests that interest only mortgages went almost exclusively to property investors. | Type of material: | Working Paper | Publisher: | University College Dublin. School of Economics | Start page: | 1 | End page: | 8 | Series/Report no.: | UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series; WP11/17 | Keywords: | Irish banks; Bad loans; Mortgages | Other versions: | http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/WP11_17.pdf | Language: | en | Status of Item: | Not peer reviewed | This item is made available under a Creative Commons License: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/ |
Appears in Collections: | Economics Working Papers & Policy Papers |
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