Change points of global temperature

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
Cahill_globalchangepoints_2015.pdf813.4 kBAdobe PDFDownload
Title: Change points of global temperature
Authors: Cahill, Niamh
Rahmstorf, Stefan
Parnell, Andrew C.
Permanent link:
Date: Aug-2015
Abstract: We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent 'hiatus', 'pause' or 'slowdown' of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend since∼1970. We conclude that the term 'hiatus' or 'pause' cannot be statistically justified.
Funding Details: European Commission - European Regional Development Fund
Higher Education Authority
Science Foundation Ireland
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Copyright (published version): 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Keywords: Hiatus;Change points;Global temperature
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084002
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
Appears in Collections:Mathematics and Statistics Research Collection
CASL Research Collection
Earth Institute Research Collection

Show full item record

Citations 10

Last Week
Last month
checked on Jun 22, 2018

Google ScholarTM



This item is available under the Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Ireland. No item may be reproduced for commercial purposes. For other possible restrictions on use please refer to the publisher's URL where this is made available, or to notes contained in the item itself. Other terms may apply.