Change points of global temperature

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Title: Change points of global temperature
Authors: Cahill, Niamh
Rahmstorf, Stefan
Parnell, Andrew C.
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/7337
Date: Aug-2015
Abstract: We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent 'hiatus', 'pause' or 'slowdown' of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend since∼1970. We conclude that the term 'hiatus' or 'pause' cannot be statistically justified.
Funding Details: European Commission - European Regional Development Fund
Higher Education Authority
Science Foundation Ireland
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Copyright (published version): 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Keywords: Hiatus;Change points;Global temperature
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084002
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
Appears in Collections:Mathematics and Statistics Research Collection
CASL Research Collection
Earth Institute Research Collection

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