Simulated future development of the Greater Dublin Area: consequences for protected areas and coastal flooding risk

Title: Simulated future development of the Greater Dublin Area: consequences for protected areas and coastal flooding risk
Authors: Brennan, Michael
Hochstrasser, Tamara
Shahumyan, Harutyun
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/7711
Date: Dec-2010
Abstract: The Greater Dublin Area (GDA) has experienced rapid urban expansion over the past 20 years. The development pattern has been described as economically driven and developer-led.These changes have had some well recognised consequences such as urban sprawl, congestion and a decrease in environmental quality. Despite the economic downturn, it is projected that the population of the GDA will continue to increase, potentially exacerbating the negative consequences of urban expansion. The objective of this study was to assess the consequences of continued urban expansion on the region, with particular emphasis on protected areas and flooding risk. To assess the consequences of continued urban expansion we used the MOLAND model; a cellular automaton-based spatial decision support system that has been widely applied across Europe. This model allows the user to explore urban growth under different population, infrastructure and policy scenarios. Using MOLAND we simulated urban expansion in the GDA under four population projections to 2026, assuming spatial trends of urban development stay similar to the recent past. In all scenarios development disperses widely across the study area, formerly separate towns merge and coastal regions are subject to particularly high growth. We discuss the simulated development in terms of its ecological, environmental, social and health effects.
Funding Details: Environmental Protection Agency
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: The Centre for Urban and Regional Studies, Trinity College Dublin and The School of Geography, Planning & Environmental Policy, University College Dublin
Copyright (published version): 2010 Journal of Irish Urban Studies
Keywords: Urban development;Landuse;Spatial decision support systems;MOLAND model
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
Appears in Collections:Urban Institute Ireland Research Collection
Geography Research Collection
Biology & Environmental Science Research Collection

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