Options
Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria
Author(s)
Date Issued
2016-12
Date Available
2017-01-03T17:22:16Z
Abstract
Despite the surge in quantitative research examining the link between climate variability and conflict, a lot of uncertainty exists concerning whether there is a link. One shortcoming of the current literature is that it focuses mainly on statistical inference in order to establish causation with little attention for the predictive performance of the model. In contrast, this study extends the current literature by focusing on the predictive accuracy of a model linking droughts to communal conflict using data for Nigeria for the period 2006-2014. Using a number of different model specifications and estimation methods to test the robustness of the results, the analysis shows that although the regression results show a positive link between the occurrence of droughts and communal conflict, the predictive accuracy of the model is relatively low. In contrast, accounting for the temporal and spatial dynamics of conflict leads to better forecasts compared to the climate variable.
Type of Material
Working Paper
Publisher
University College Dublin. School of Economics
Start Page
1
End Page
30
Series
UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series
WP2016/18
Classification
D74
Q54
O55
Language
English
Status of Item
Not peer reviewed
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
File(s)
Owning collection
Views
1329
Last Month
1
1
Acquisition Date
Mar 29, 2024
Mar 29, 2024
Downloads
285
Last Month
6
6
Acquisition Date
Mar 29, 2024
Mar 29, 2024