An econometric analysis of burglary in Ireland

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Title: An econometric analysis of burglary in Ireland
Authors: Denny, Kevin
Harmon, Colm
Lydon, Reamonn
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Date: May-2004
Abstract: This paper outlines an econometric model of the level of burglary in Ireland between 1952 and 1998. We explain the evolution of the trend in Burglary in terms of demographic factors: in this case the share of young males in the population, the macro-economy in the form of consumer expenditure and two characteristics of the criminal justice system : the detection rate for these crimes and the size of the prison population. The share of young males is associated with higher levels of these crimes. Imprisonment and detection act as powerful forces for reducing crimes, the effects of aggregate consumption are more difficult to pin down but we show that higher spending is associated with more lucrative but probably fewer crimes. One somewhat surprising result is that we were unable to find any robust effect from direct measures of labour market activity such as unemployment rates or wage levels.
Type of material: Working Paper
Publisher: University College Dublin. School of Economics
Series/Report no.: UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series; WP04/16
Copyright (published version): UCD School of Economics 2004
Subject LCSH: Burglary--Ireland
Crime--Sociological aspects
Burglary--Econometric models
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Language: en
Status of Item: Not peer reviewed 2009-03-09T15:12:15Z
Appears in Collections:Geary Institute Research Collection
Economics Working Papers & Policy Papers

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