Federal Reserve Information during the great moderation
|Title:||Federal Reserve Information during the great moderation||Authors:||D'Agostino, Antonello
|Permanent link:||http://hdl.handle.net/10197/964||Date:||Dec-2007||Online since:||2009-03-26T14:55:26Z||Abstract:||Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992-2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commercial forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of “naive” benchmark models, dropped remarkably during this period.||Type of material:||Working Paper||Publisher:||University College Dublin. School of Economics||Series/Report no.:||UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series; WP07/22||Copyright (published version):||University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2007||Subject LCSH:||Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
|Other versions:||http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2007/WP07.22.pdf||Language:||en||Status of Item:||Not peer reviewed|
|Appears in Collections:||Economics Working Papers & Policy Papers|
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