Federal Reserve Information during the great moderation

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
whelank_workpap_047.pdf178.22 kBAdobe PDFDownload
Title: Federal Reserve Information during the great moderation
Authors: D'Agostino, Antonello
Whelan, Karl
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/964
Date: Dec-2007
Online since: 2009-03-26T14:55:26Z
Abstract: Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992-2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commercial forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of “naive” benchmark models, dropped remarkably during this period.
Type of material: Working Paper
Publisher: University College Dublin. School of Economics
Series/Report no.: UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series; WP07/22
Copyright (published version): University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2007
Subject LCSH: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Inflation (Finance)
Economic forecasting
Other versions: http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2007/WP07.22.pdf
Language: en
Status of Item: Not peer reviewed
Appears in Collections:Economics Working Papers & Policy Papers

Show full item record

Google ScholarTM


This item is available under the Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Ireland. No item may be reproduced for commercial purposes. For other possible restrictions on use please refer to the publisher's URL where this is made available, or to notes contained in the item itself. Other terms may apply.