Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Publication
    High Resolution Wind Power and Wind Drought Models
    We present high resolution wind power statistical models fitted to meteorological data for the island of Ireland. We find that a discrete Burr model efficiently represents the number of consecutive hours of wind power availability. Burr models are also useful to model the complement of the wind power availability events, wind droughts, when wind speed is insufficient to produce wind power. The models developed in this study may be most useful at time resolutions less than six hours to capture zero power and short bursts of wind power potential. They could serve as a useful complement to other wind power modelling approaches such as MERRA reanalysis models. Wind power duration models, and their wind drought complements, also provide insights for investors on potential wind power availability at geographic locations.
      548
  • Publication
    A 34-year simulation of wind generation potential for Ireland and the impact of large-scale atmospheric pressure patterns
    To study climate-related aspects of power system operation with large volumes of wind generation, data with sufficiently wide temporal and spatial scope are required. The relative youth of the wind industry means that long-term data from real systems are not available. Here, a detailed aggregated wind power generation model is developed for the Republic of Ireland using MERRA reanalysis wind speed data and verified against measured wind production data for the period 2001–2014. The model is most successful in representing aggregate power output in the middle years of this period, after the total installed capacity had reached around 500 MW. Variability on scales of greater than 6 h is captured well by the model; one additional higher resolution wind dataset was found to improve the representation of higher frequency variability. Finally, the model is used to hindcast hypothetical aggregate wind production over the 34-year period 1980–2013, based on existing installed wind capacity. A relationship is found between several of the production characteristics, including capacity factor, ramping and persistence, and two large-scale atmospheric patterns – the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic Pattern.
      448Scopus© Citations 24
  • Publication
    High Resolution Wind Power Models - An Irish Case Study
    This paper focuses on high resolution wind power statistical models fitted to meteorological data for the island of Ireland. A discrete Burr model efficiently represents the number of consecutive hours of wind power availability. The models developed in this study may be most useful at time resolutions less than 6 hours to capture zero power and short bursts of wind power potential. They could serve as a useful complement to other wind power modelling approaches such as MERRA reanalysis models.
    Scopus© Citations 2  553