Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Publication
    Browsing onwards : Irish public spending in perspective
    (Irish Bankers' Federation, 2003) ;
    In the context of the current debate over standards of public services in Ireland and the appropriate level of public spending this paper reviews historical trends in Irish public expenditure, its relationship to GDP/GNP and comparisons with other EU states. The growth in Irish public spending has accelerated sharply in recent years. Since 1996 real public current expenditure (net of inflation) has grown by almost 70% and the figure for health is 136%. This rapid growth means that, on a per capita basis, public expenditure will be above the projected EU average for 2003 and health expenditure in particular will be amongst the highest per capita in the EU. Education expenditure will also be above the EU average. Assertions to the contrary would have been more accurate some years ago, but have been overtaken by the Irish spending explosion.
  • Publication
    Alternative seasonal adjustment methods for aggregate Irish macroeconomic data
    (Economic and Social Research Institute, 2005-10) ;
    Three distinct strands can be identified in the literature on seasonality. Economists have long been interested in removing high-frequency "noise" from individual economic time series, or "deseasonalizing the data" in common parlance. The second strand, on which an extensive technical literature has been developed over recent decades, treats seasonality as just one element to be encompassed in multivariate dynamic time series modeling, while a final strand seeks to model the economics of seasonality as the outcome of maximizing behavior by producing and consuming agents. Direct and indirect approaches have been compared to the seasonal adjustment of Irish macroeconomic series published by the Central Statistics Office. The presumption in the literature is that the indirect method is likely to be preferred in most real-world situations, but it is an empirical question whether it makes any great practical difference. The results indicate that it makes a very big difference indeed, with one-period growth rates frequently changing sign.