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Lundholm, Anders
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Lundholm, Anders
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Lundholm, Anders
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Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
- PublicationForest decision support systems for the analysis of ecosystem services provisioning at the landscape scale under global climate and market change scenarios(Springer, 2019-08-15)
; ; ; ; ; ; Sustainable forest management is driving the development of forest decision support systems (DSSs) to include models and methods concerned with climate change, biodiversity and various ecosystem services (ESs). The future development of forest landscapes is very much dependent on how forest owners act and what goes on in the wider world; thus, models are needed that incorporate these aspects. The objective of this study is to assess how nine European state-of-the-art forest DSSs cope with these issues. The assessment focuses on the ability of these DSSs to generate landscape-level scenarios to explore the output of current and alternative forest management models (FMMs) in terms of a range of ESs and the robustness of these FMMs in the face of increased risks and uncertainty. Results show that all DSSs assessed in this study can be used to quantify the impacts of both stand- and landscape-level FMMs on the provision of a range of ESs over a typical planning horizon. DSSs can be used to assess how timber price trends may impact that provision over time. The inclusion of forest owner behavior as reflected by the adoption of specific FMMs seems to be also in the reach of all DSSs. Nevertheless, some DSSs need more data and development of models to estimate the impacts of climate change on biomass production and other ESs. Spatial analysis functionality needs to be further developed for a more accurate assessment of the landscape-level output of ESs from both current and alternative FMMs.273Scopus© Citations 45 - PublicationAn optimisation based decision support system to assess the impact of climate change and an expanding bioeconomy on the provision of ecosystem services in Ireland's western peatland forests(University College Dublin. School of Agriculture and Food Science, 2020)
; 0000-0003-0509-3915Forest Management Decision Support Systems (FMDSSs) have long been used in the forest industry to assist in the planning process, mainly focusing on finances and timber production. The work presented in this thesis focuses on the development of a linear programming optimisation model (the ALTERFOR model), using the DSS Remsoft Woodstock. The ALTERFOR model was designed to include indicators for several Ecosystem Services (ESs), i.e. timber, carbon pools, windthrow risk, biodiversity, water quality, and cultural services, as well as impacts from climate change and dynamic timber assortment prices, based on global development scenarios. The scenarios that included greater efforts to mitigate climate change also included higher dynamic timber assortment prices, to represent the increased demand for timber resulting from an expanding bioeconomy. The Barony of Moycullen in county Galway, Ireland, was used as Case Study Area (CSA), and forest management actions commonly used in Ireland and management approaches specific to the CSA were identified and included in the ALTERFOR model, as well as the associated costs, wood prices, and all relevant forest policies and regulations. The ALTERFOR model was first used to find the biophysical ES provision ranges in the forest landscape, and to evaluate how different global scenarios will affect forest composition, forest management actions, Net Present Value (NPV) and ESs, based on current Forest Management Models (cFMMs). Alternative FMMs (aFMMs) were developed to address issues identified by stakeholders. The aFMMs were incorporated in the ALTERFOR model and the global scenarios where re-run to assess how they influenced ES delivery. The model resulted in several linked ESs being identified, where managing for one ES indicator always provided a high or low supply of the other ES indicators, and vice versa. For example, high timber harvest volumes coincided with lower total carbon storage (in the forest, wood products, and due to carbon substitution) lower windthrow risk, and high P emissions, and vice versa. Interestingly, the dynamic assortment prices in the global scenarios had significantly higher impacts on forest management approaches and NPV than climate change itself. Implementing recently introduced environmental forest policy also impacted on the eligible management options, which led to forest composition changes, with large areas converted to aquatic buffer zones and most Sitka spruce replaced with lodgepole pine. The aFMMs were established on large areas in the CSA, and utilising combinations of cFMMs and aFMMs contributed to higher NPV, lower windthrow risk, more biodiversity, lower P emissions and higher recreation and aesthetic values – all ES provision changes that were considered beneficial. Although the aFMMs generally resulted in less timber production and carbon storage, it is likely that forest managers will use them in the future due to their many benefits. The customisability of Remsoft Woodstock allows the ALTERFOR model to be applied in other forest landscapes in Ireland with only minor modifications. The modelling framework presented in this thesis, with regards to ES indicators and global scenarios, can also be implemented in other countries in any Woodstock model with a profit maximisation objective. This is the first Irish study to combine such a broad range of ESs, climate change, dynamic assortment prices and alternative management approaches in a FMDSS. The ALTERFOR model can also be used to evaluate the impacts of introducing new forest policy and certification rules.489 - PublicationAlternative management of Ireland’s western peatland forests to adapt to climate change and an expanding bioeconomy(2019-12-06)
; ; The inherent factor of poor site productivity in western peatland forests combined with the reduction in management intensity from increased environmental considerations has brought some new challenges into forest management. Our study investigates new, alternative forest management models in the area chosen for this study, Cloosh forest, Co. Galway, to assess how these forests should be managed under future impacts of climate change and dynamic timber prices due to an expanding bioeconomy, and to quantify the impact this will have on forest ecosystem services (ES).68