Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Publication
    Spreading of memes on multiplex networks
    A model for the spreading of online information or 'memes' on multiplex networks is introduced and analyzed using branching-process methods. The model generalizes that of (Gleeson et al 2016 Phys. Rev. X) in two ways. First, even for a monoplex (single-layer) network, the model is defined for any specific network defined by its adjacency matrix, instead of being restricted to an ensemble of random networks. Second, a multiplex version of the model is introduced to capture the behavior of users who post information from one social media platform to another. In both cases the branching process analysis demonstrates that the dynamical system is, in the limit of low innovation, poised near a critical point, which is known to lead to heavy-tailed distributions of meme popularity similar to those observed in empirical data.
    ScopusĀ© Citations 15  216
  • Publication
    A Rolling Optimisation Model of the UK Natural Gas Market
    (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2014-06) ; ; ;
    Daily gas demand in the UK is variable. This is partly due to weather patterns and the changing nature of electricity markets, where intermittent wind energy levels lead to variations in the demand for gas needed to produce electricity. This uncertainty makes it difficult for traders in the market to analyse the market. As a result, there is an increasing need for models of the UK natural gas market that include stochastic demand. In this paper, a Rolling Optimisation Model (ROM) of the UK natural gas market is introduced. It takes as an input stochastically generated scenarios of demand. The outputs of ROM are the flows of gas, i.e., how the different sources of supply meet demand, as well as how gas flows in to and out of gas storage facilities. The outputs also include the daily System Average Price of gas in the UK. The model was found to fit reasonably well to historic data (from the UK National Grid) for the years starting on the 1st of April for both 2010 and 2011. These results allow ROM to be used to predict future flows and prices of gas and to investigate various stress-test scenarios in the UK natural gas market.
    ScopusĀ© Citations 17  469