Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Publication
    Polarized Ukraine 2014: opinion and territorial split demonstrated with the bounded confidence XY model, parametrized by Twitter data
    Multiple countries have recently experienced extreme political polarization, which, in some cases, led to escalation of hate crime, violence and political instability. Besides the much discussed presidential elections in the USA and France, Britain's Brexit vote and Turkish constitutional referendum showed signs of extreme polarization. Among the countries affected, Ukraine faced some of the gravest consequences. In an attempt to understand the mechanisms of these phenomena, we here combine social media analysis with agent-based modelling of opinion dynamics, targeting Ukraine's crisis of 2014. We use Twitter data to quantify changes in the opinion divide and parametrize an extended bounded confidence XY model, which provides a spatio-temporal description of the polarization dynamics. We demonstrate that the level of emotional intensity is a major driving force for polarization that can lead to a spontaneous onset of collective behaviour at a certain degree of homophily and conformity. We find that the critical level of emotional intensity corresponds to a polarization transition, marked by a sudden increase in the degree of involvement and in the opinion bimodality.
      440Scopus© Citations 10
  • Publication
    Tricritical points in a Vicsek model of self-propelled particles with bounded confidence
    (American Physical Society, 2014-12-24) ; ;
    We study the orientational ordering in systems of self-propelled particles with selective interactions. To introduce the selectivity we augment the standard Vicsek model with a bounded-confidence collision rule: a given particle only aligns to neighbors who have directions quite similar to its own. Neighbors whose directions deviate more than a fixed restriction angle α are ignored. The collective dynamics of this system is studied by agent-based simulations and kinetic mean-field theory. We demonstrate that the reduction of the restriction angle leads to a critical noise amplitude decreasing monotonically with that angle, turning into a power law with exponent 3/2 for small angles. Moreover, for small system sizes we show that upon decreasing the restriction angle, the kind of the transition to polar collective motion changes from continuous to discontinuous. Thus, an apparent tricritical point with different scaling laws is identified and calculated analytically. We investigate the shifting and vanishing of this point due to the formation of density bands as the system size is increased. Agent-based simulations in small systems with large particle velocities show excellent agreement with the kinetic theory predictions. We also find that at very small interaction angles, the polar ordered phase becomes unstable with respect to the apolar phase. We derive analytical expressions for the dependence of the threshold noise on the restriction angle. We show that the mean-field kinetic theory also permits stationary nematic states below a restriction angle of 0.681 π. We calculate the critical noise, at which the disordered state bifurcates to a nematic state, and find that it is always smaller than the threshold noise for the transition from disorder to polar order. The disordered-nematic transition features two tricritical points: At low and high restriction angle, the transition is discontinuous but continuous at intermediate α. We generalize our results to systems that show fragmentation into more than two groups and obtain scaling laws for the transition lines and the corresponding tricritical points. A numerical method to evaluate the nonlinear Fredholm integral equation for the stationary distribution function is also presented. This method is shown to give excellent agreement with agent-based simulations, even in strongly ordered systems at noise values close to zero.
    Scopus© Citations 31  384