Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Publication
    A Model of QE, Reserve Demand and the Money Multiplier
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2021-02) ;
    Quantitative easing programmes have driven unprecedented expansions in the supply of central bank reserves around the world over the past two decades, fundamentally changing the implementation of monetary policy. The collapse in money multipliers following QE episodes has often been interpreted as implying banks are happy to passively hold most of the reserves created by QE. This paper develops a simple micro-simulation model of the banking sector that adapts the traditional money multiplier model and allows for bank reserve demand to be inferred from monetary aggregates. The model allows the use of unwanted reserves by banks to play out over time alongside QE purchases and incorporates both significantly higher reserve demand after 2008 and capital constraints. With these additions, the model explains the persistently lower money multipliers seen in the US following QE, as well as the growth in commercial bank deposits. The model suggests the demand from banks for reserves has increased substantially since the introduction of QE but not to the point where banks are passively absorbing all newly created reserves.
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  • Publication
    Quantitative Easing and the Hot Potato Effect: Evidence from Euro Area Banks
    (Elsevier, 2021-07) ;
    We use bank-level data to examine the behaviour of reserves in the euro area banking system over the course of the ECB QE programme. Previous research on QE has often assumed banks passively absorb the additional reserves generated by asset purchases. However, with a negative deposit rate in place throughout our sample, euro area banks have had a disincentive to hold excess reserves and thus could wish to treat them as a “hot potato” that is preferably passed on to other banks. We find evidence for this hot potato effect, reporting substantial month-to-month churn in bank reserves as well as evidence that banks are pushing reserves off their balance sheets through debt security purchases. As such, this hot potato effect seems likely to have had an effect on European bond yields that is distinct from the portfolio rebalancing effect that has been the primary emphasis of the existing QE literature.
    Scopus© Citations 4  18
  • Publication
    Quantitative Easing and the Hot Potato Effect: Evidence from Euro Area Banks
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2019-01) ;
    We use a bank-level data set to examine the behaviour of central bank reserves in the euro area banking system over the course of the ECB QE programme. Previous research on QE has generally paid little attention to the role of reserve dynamics within the banking system and some have assumed that the system passively absorbs additional reserves generated by asset purchases. However, with a negative deposit rate in place throughout the sample we study, euro area banks have had a disincentive to hold excess reserves and thus could wish to treat them as a “hot potato” that is preferably passed on to other banks. We find evidence for this hot potato effect, reporting substantial month-to-month churn in bank reserves as well as evidence that banks are responding to high reserve balances by pushing them off their balance sheets. Unlike in the traditional money multiplier model, where excess reserves are used in loan creation, banks appear to be primarily managing reserves through debt security purchases. As such, this hot potato effect seems likely to have had an effect on European bond yields that is distinct from the portfolio rebalancing effect emphasised in the QE literature thus far.
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