Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
  • Publication
    Attitudes and behaviour of the Irish electorate in the first referendum on the Treaty of Nice
    (University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change, 2002)
  • Publication
    ‘Second order’ versus ‘issue voting’ effects in EU Referendums : evidence from the Irish Nice Treaty Referendums
    (University College Dublin. Geary Institute, 2004-11) ; ;
    Given the raft of upcoming referendums on the new EU constitution, the question of what determines voting in EU referendums is of considerable importance. Are referendums on EU treaties decided by voters' attitudes to Europe (the 'issue voting' explanation) or by voters' attitudes to their national political parties and incumbent national government (the 'second-order election model' explanation)? In one scenario, these referendums will approximate to deliberative processes that will be decided by people's views of the merits of European integration and of the new constitution. In the other scenario, they will be plebiscites on the performance of national governments. The implications of each scenario for democratic decision-making on EU issues are quite different and very far-reaching. We test the two competing explanations of the determinants of voting in EU referendums using evidence from the two Irish referendums on the Nice Treaty. We find that the issue-voting model outperforms the second-order model in both referendums. However, we also find that issue voting was particularly important in the more salient and more intense second referendum. Most strikingly, attitudes to EU enlargement were much stronger predictors of vote at Nice 2 than at Nice 1. This finding about the rise in importance of attitudes to the EU points to the importance of campaigning in EU referendums.
  • Publication
    Attitudes and behaviour of the Irish electorate in the second referendum on the Treaty of Nice
    (University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2003)
  • Publication
    An evaluation of the measurement of national, sub-national and supranational identity in major cross-national surveys
    (University College Dublin. Geary Institute, 2004-08)
    This research note assesses the various measure of national/subnational/supranational identity that have been used in the main cross-national survey research projects. It reduces the variety of measures to three main types – identification rankings (type A), proximity ratings (type B) and identification ratings (type C). On the basis of cross-survey comparisons of the predictive power of each type, it tentatively concludes that B is better than A and that C is better than B. This tentative finding is strongly supported by a more rigorous test that capitalises on the occurrence of two of the measures within each of two of the international surveys as implemented in Ireland. The note concludes by making recommendations regarding the measurement of identity in established and new cross-national surveys.
  • Publication
    Economic Voting in EU Referendums: Sociotropic versus Egocentric Voting in the Lisbon Treaty Plebiscites in Ireland
    Economic voting is one of the most studied aspects of electoral behaviour. The dominant view is that sociotropic economic considerations are more important to voters in national elections. However, other research suggests that utilitarian motivations are key to understanding support for the EU. An EU integration referendum offers the opportunity to explore whether and when sociotropic or utilitarian motivations are more important in determining vote choice. The unusual combination of two successive referendums in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty, either side of the global financial crisis, provides the ideal opportunity to test these assumptions. Using data from two post-referendum surveys, we demonstrate that the economy mattered in both referendums but that different economic motivations drove vote choice in each, with sociotropic motivations more critical as a result of the global financial crisis. Our study has implications for economic voting and referendums and demonstrates that context is crucial in determining a voter’s economic motivations in a plebiscite.
      323Scopus© Citations 3