Economics Working Papers & Policy Papers

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UCD Centre for Economic Research publishes preliminary versions of research papers written by members of the School and other researchers associated with it. Over twenty papers per annum have appeared in recent years and most have subsequently been published in a wide range of outlets, including most of the leading economics journals worldwide.

For more information please see the School of Economics website or contact our information centre at economics@ucd.ie.

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Recent Submissions

Now showing 1 - 5 of 880
  • Publication
    Risk Aversion and Favorite-Longshot Bias in a Competitive Fixed-Odds Betting Market
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2022-08)
    Research on sports betting markets has generally found a favorite-longshot bias, the empirical pattern for loss rates for bets on longshots to be higher than for favorites, which implies the odds do not reflect the underlying probabilities. The existing literature focuses largely on pari-mutuel betting but favorite-longshot bias is also evident in fixed-odds online betting markets of the type that are growing rapidly around the world. Explanations for this bias in previous work on pari- mutuel markets cannot explain why it would be a feature of competitive fixed-odds betting mar- kets. We show how disagreement among gamblers and risk-aversion on the part of bookmakers in a competitive market can produce a pattern of favorite-longshot bias resembling the empirical evidence.
      31
  • Publication
    US Taxation of Gambling Winnings and Incentives to Bet
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2022-08)
    Sports betting is growing rapidly in the US after its legalization by the Supreme Court in 2018. This paper describes the treatment of gambling winnings and losses in the federal tax code and shows how the system may incentivize some gamblers to substantially increase the scale of their betting in order to have a chance to win. This incentive stems from the fact that gambling losses can only be deducted if taxpayers are filing for itemized deductions, meaning the scale of gambling losses has to be large enough to push a taxpayer’s eligible deductions over the standard deduction. This incentive to engage in large-scale betting applies mostly to lower and middle-income households.
      28
  • Publication
    Corporate tax changes and credit costs
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2022-07) ; ; ; ;
    We examine changes in the corporate tax rate across the U.S. and their implications on the pricing and quantity of loans. We find an asymmetric effect on the cost of credit: loan spreads decrease by approximately 5.9 basis points in response to a one percentage tax cut, but they are insensitive to corporate tax increases. Primarily, a debt restructuring effect (working via firm’s leverage) and, secondarily, a credit supply effect (working via bank market power and bank capital) drive the easing effect of tax cuts on equilibrium loan pricing, while the effect on the equilibrium quantity of loans is insignificant.
      21
  • Publication
    The Irish in England
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2022-07) ;
    The successful assimilation of ethnic minorities into Western economies is one of the biggest challenges facing the Modern World. The substantial flows of Irish, to England, provide an historical example of this process. However, this has received surprisingly little scholarly attention. We use the universe of probate and vital registers of births, marriages and deaths, from England, 1838 to 2018, to document the status of the Irish in England. We identify the ‘Irish’ in the records as those individuals with distinctively Irish surnames. From at least the mid 19th century to 2018, the Irish in England have persisted as an underclass, 30-50% poorer than the English. Infant mortality is about 25% higher for the Irish 1838-1950 but has subsequently equalized. We discuss the potential roles of selective migration, social mobility, discrimination, and the role of the marriage market in this, and signpost directions for future research.
      21
  • Publication
    Where Do We Stand With “Whatever It Takes”?
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2022-06)
    It is ten years since Mario Draghi’s "whatever it takes" speech and the announcement of the OMT programme designed to address financial fragmentation. This paper reviews the sources of financial fragmentation including and discusses whether monetary tightening over the next few years will trigger concerns about unsustainable fiscal burdens in some euro area member states. The paper discusses the evolution of ECB policy regarding fragmentation and the practical and legal issues involved. Legal limits on sovereign bond holdings may force the ECB into some difficult choices in the coming years.
      27