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A modelling framework for the prediction of the herd-level probability of infection from longitudinal data

2022-01-07, Madouasse, Aurélien, Mercat, Mathilde, Roon, Annika M. Van, Graham, David A., More, Simon John, et al.

he collective control programmes (CPs) that exist for many infectious diseases of farm animals rely on the application of diagnostic testing at regular time intervals for the identification of infected animals or herds. The diversity of these CPs complicates the trade of animals between regions or countries because the definition of freedom from infection differs from one CP to another. In this paper, we describe a statistical model for the prediction of herd-level probabilities of infection from longitudinal data collected as part of CPs against infectious diseases of cattle. The model was applied to data collected as part of a CP against bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infection in Loire-Atlantique, France. The model represents infection as a herd latent status with a monthly dynamics. This latent status determines test results through test sensitivity and test specificity. The probability of becoming status positive between consecutive months is modelled as a function of risk factors (when available) using logistic regression. Modelling is performed in a Bayesian framework, using either Stan or JAGS. Prior distributions need to be provided for the sensitivities and specificities of the different tests used, for the probability of remaining status positive between months as well as for the probability of becoming positive between months. When risk factors are available, prior distributions need to be provided for the coefficients of the logistic regression, replacing the prior for the probability of becoming positive. From these prior distributions and from the longitudinal data, the model returns posterior probability distributions for being status positive for all herds on the current month. Data from the previous months are used for parameter estimation. The impact of using different prior distributions and model implementations on parameter estimation was evaluated. The main advantage of this model is its ability to predict a probability of being status positive in a month from inputs that can vary in terms of nature of test, frequency of testing and risk factor availability/presence. The main challenge in applying the model to the BVDV CP data was in identifying prior distributions, especially for test characteristics, that corresponded to the latent status of interest, i.e. herds with at least one persistently infected (PI) animal. The model is available on Github as an R package (https://github.com/AurMad/STOCfree) and can be used to carry out output-based evaluation of disease CPs.

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The Irish Johne’s Control Programme

2021-08-27, Gavey, Lawrence, Citer, Lorna R., More, Simon John, Graham, David A.

The Irish Johne’s Control Programme (IJCP) provides a long-term approach to the voluntary control of Johne’s disease (JD) in Ireland, strongly supported by Irish cattle industry leadership. It leverages the establishment of Animal Health Ireland for control of animal diseases not regulated by the European Union. The IJCP has four objectives: facilitate protection against spread of JD to uninfected farms; reduce the level of infection when present; assure markets of JD control in Ireland; and improve calf health and farm biosecurity. Key IJCP elements are an annual veterinary risk assessment and management plan (VRAMP), annual whole herd test (WHT) by ELISA on blood or milk samples with ancillary faecal PCR testing of ELISA reactors, and Targeted Advisory Service on Animal Health (TASAH) investigations of infected herds. There are pathways for assurance of herds with continuing negative tests and for management of test-positive herds. Herdowners are responsible for on-farm activities, and specifically-trained (approved) veterinary practitioners have a pivotal role as technical advisors and service providers. The programme is supported by training of veterinarians, performance of testing in designated laboratories, documentation of policies and procedures, innovative data management for herd and test activities and for programme administration, training, and broad communication and awareness activities. Tools and systems are refined to address emerging issues and enhance the value of the programme. An Implementation: Group comprising industry, government and technical leaders sets strategic direction and policy, advised by a Technical Working Group. Shared funding responsibilities are agreed by key stakeholders until 2022 to support herds in the programme to complete requirements. Herd registrations have increased steadily to exceed 1,800. National bulk tank milk surveillance is also being deployed to identify and recruit test-positive herds with the expectation that they have a relatively high proportion of seropositive animals. The programme will continue to innovate and improve to meet farmer and industry needs.

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Combining expert knowledge and machine-learning to classify herd types in livestock systems

2021-02-04, Brock, Jonas, Lange, Martin, Tratalos, Jamie A., More, Simon John, Graham, David A., Guelbenzu Gonzalo, Maria, Thulke, Hans-Hermann

A detailed understanding of herd types is needed for animal disease control and surveillance activities, to inform epidemiological study design and interpretation, and to guide effective policy decision-making. In this paper, we present a new approach to classify herd types in livestock systems by combining expert knowledge and a machine-learning algorithm called self-organising-maps (SOMs). This approach is applied to the cattle sector in Ireland, where a detailed understanding of herd types can assist with on-going discussions on control and surveillance for endemic cattle diseases. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the SOM algorithm has been used to differentiate livestock systems. In compliance with European Union (EU) requirements, relevant data in the Irish livestock register includes the birth, movements and disposal of each individual bovine, and also the sex and breed of each bovine and its dam. In total, 17 herd types were identified in Ireland using 9 variables. We provide a data-driven classification tree using decisions derived from the Irish livestock registration data. Because of the visual capabilities of the SOM algorithm, the interpretation of results is relatively straightforward and we believe our approach, with adaptation, can be used to classify herd type in any other livestock system.

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Quantifying the role of Trojan dams in the between-herd spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDv) in Ireland

2018-04-01, Reardon, Fiona, Graham, David A., Clegg, Tracy A., Tratalos, Jamie A., O'Sullivan, Padraig, More, Simon John

A compulsory national programme to eradicate bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDv) began in Ireland on 1 January, 2013. The objective of the current study was to quantify the role of Trojan dams (animal(s) not persistently infected (PI) with BVDv but carrying PI foetus(es) and introduced to the herd while pregnant with the PI foetus(es)) in the farm-to-farm spread of BVDv in Ireland, and to identify herd-level risk factors for producing or introducing a Trojan dam. The study population included all BVD+ calves born in Ireland between 1 January, 2013 and 31 December, 2015, along with their dams. BVD+ calves included all calves on the national programme database with an initial positive or inconclusive virus test, without a confirmatory re-test (status BVDPOS) and those with an initial positive or inconclusive test and a positive confirmatory test (status BVDPI). The Trojan status of dams was determined after considering their history of movement and of potential BVDV exposure, relative to a defined window of susceptibility (WOS; days 30–120 of gestation). During 2013–15, there were 29,422 BVD+ birth events to dams that were not themselves BVD+, including 2526 (8.6%) most-likely attributable to Trojan dams. The percentage of these birth events attributable to Trojan dams was significantly different (P < 0.001) between years, being 7.1% in 2013, 9.2% in 2014 and 10.6% in 2015. During 2013, in 9.9% of herds with one or more BVD+ birth to non-BVD+ dams, at least one of these births was attributed to a Trojan dam. In 2014 and 2015, the percentages were 11.8% and 13.3%, respectively. In 2013, in 7.8% of herds with one or more BVD+ birth to non-BVD+ dams, all of these births were attributable to Trojan dams. In 2014 and 2015, the percentages were 9.2% and 10.7%, respectively. A logistic GEE regression identified dam parity, herd size and an interaction between herd type and season as significant predictors for the birth of a BVD+ calf to a Trojan dam. Significant predictors for the sale of a Trojan dam from BVD+ herds included those selling more than one pregnant female and those with more than 2 BVD+ animals in the herd. Introduction of pregnant adult females is a potential source of BVD+ births in BVD-free herds and may add to the burden of infection in non-BVD-free herds. Addressing this route of transmission will be critical for herds that are now free of infection and wish to continue to purchase animals without introducing it.

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The Irish cattle population structured by enterprise type: overview, trade & trends

2022-04-04, Brock, Jonas, Lange, Martin, Tratalos, Jamie A., Meunier, Natascha V., Guelbenzu Gonzalo, Maria, More, Simon John, Thulke, Hans-Hermann, Graham, David A.

Background: The cattle sector is the most important economic production unit of the Irish farming and agri-food sector. Despite its relevance, there has been limited quantitative information about the structure of differing cattle production types and of the connections between them. This paper addresses this gap by providing, for the first time, an overview of the Irish cattle population structured by enterprise type. Methods & Results: We collected data from the cattle register for the period 2015 to 2019 and assigned registered herds to one of 18 different herd types using a recently published herd type classification approach. This allows, for the first time, to exploring changes in enterprise types and subtypes over time, and describing the movements between these subtypes and from these subtypes to slaughter. Conclusions: The overview and associated classification presented in this study will form the basis for a number of future comparative studies, including cross-sectoral assessments of profitability, estimation of the extent of animal health losses on Irish cattle farms or structural analysis of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions across production systems.

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STOC Free: An Innovative Framework to Compare Probability of Freedom From Infection in Heterogeneous Control Programmes

2019-04-26, Roon, Annika M. Van, Santman-Berends, Inge M. G. A., Graham, David A., More, Simon John, et al.

The existence, stage of eradication and design of control programmes (CPs) for diseases that are not regulated by the EU differ between Member States. When freedom from infection is reached (or being pursued), safe trade is essential to protect (or reach) that status. The aim of STOC free, a collaborative project between six countries, is to develop and validate a framework that enables a transparent and standardized comparison of confidence of freedom for CPs across herds, regions or countries. The framework consists of a model combined with a tool to facilitate the collection of the necessary parameters. All relevant actions taken in a CP are included in a Bayesian network model, which allows prior distributions for most parameters. In addition, frequency of occurrence and risk estimates for factors that influence either the probability of introduction or temporary misclassification leading to delayed detection of the infection are included in the model. Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is used as an example disease. Many countries have CPs in place for BVDV and although elements of the CPs are similar, biosecurity measures and testing protocols, including types of tests and testing frequency, as well as target groups, differ widely. Although the initially developed framework is based on BVDV, the aim is to make it sufficiently generic to be adaptable to CPs for other diseases and possibly other species. Thus, STOC free will result in a single general framework, adaptable to multiple disease CPs, which aims to enhance the safety of trade.

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A survey of free-ranging deer in Ireland for serological evidence of exposure to bovine viral diarrhoea virus, bovine herpes virus-1, bluetongue virus and Schmallenberg virus

2017-05-12, Graham, David A., Gallagher, Clare, Carden, Ruth F., et al.

Background: Deer are an important wildlife species in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland having colonised most regions across the island of Ireland. In comparison to cattle and sheep which represent the main farmed ruminant species on the island, there is a lack of data concerning their exposure, as measured by the presence of antibodies, to important viral pathogens of ruminants. A study was therefore undertaken to investigate the seroprevalence of wild deer to four viruses, namely bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), bovine herpesvirus-1 (BoHV-1), Schmallenberg virus (SBV) and bluetongue virus (BTV). Results: Two panels of sera were assembled; Panel 1 comprised 259 samples (202 collected in the Republic of Ireland and 57 in Northern Ireland) between 2013 and 2015, while Panel 2 comprised 131 samples collected in the Republic of Ireland between 2014 and 2015. Overall sika deer (Cervus nippon) were sampled most commonly (54.8%), followed by fallow deer (Dama dama) (35.3%), with red deer (Cervus elaphus) (4.3%) and hybrid species (0.3%) sampled less frequently, with the species not being recorded for the remaining 5.3% of deer sampled. Age was not recorded for 96 of the 390 deer sampled. 196 of the remainder were adults, while 68 and 30 were yearlings and calves, respectively. Using commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, true prevalence and 95% confidence intervals were calculated as 9.9%, (6.8-13.0% CI), SBV; 1.5% (0.1-3.0% CI), BoHV-1; 0.0%, 0-1.7% CI), BVDV; and 0.0%, (0.01-0.10% CI), BTV. Conclusions: The results indicate a very low seroprevalence for both BVDV and BoHV-1 in the wild deer tested within the study and, are consistent with a very low prevalence in Ireland. While serological cross-reaction with cervid herpesviruses cannot be excluded, the results in both cases suggest that the presence of these viruses in deer is not a significant risk to their control and eradication from the cattle population. This is important given the ongoing programme to eradicate BVDV in Ireland and deliberations on a national eradication programme for BoHV-1. The SBV results show consistency with those reported from cattle and sheep on the island of Ireland, while the BTV results are consistent with this virus remaining exotic to Ireland. The results provide a baseline against which future surveys of either wild or farmed/captive deer populations can be compared.

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Decision support beyond total savings—Eligibility and potential savings for individual participants from changes in the national surveillance strategy for bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) in Ireland

2018-07-01, Tratalos, Jamie A., Thulke, Hans-Hermann, Graham, David A., Guelbenzu Gonzalo, Maria, More, Simon John

Surveillance and management of livestock diseases is often evaluated with reference to expected sector-wide costs. In contrast, we calculate losses or savings for individual herd owners of a change in monitoring strategy during a national cattle disease eradication programme: bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) in Ireland. The alternative strategy differs in how the disease is identified; by its sample- rather than census-based approach; and by its greater cost per test. We examined the costs faced by each breeding herd if testing were conducted using serology on a sample of young stock, in contrast to the current method of tissue-tag testing of all newborn calves. Following best knowledge of the likely costs, the following input values were used: i) €2.50 per test for tissue-tag testing and €7.66 for serology, ii) serology conducted on a sample of 10 young stock per management group from either the 6–12 month or 9–18 month cohorts; iii) 3 scenarios for the number of management groups: one per herd (M∞), one per 100 cows (M100) and one per 50 cows (M50). We found that many herds would often not be able to supply a suitable sample of young stock for serology or would face higher testing costs than when using tissue tag testing. The largest number (25%) of herds would benefit from participating in the change if sampling were done in October. These could annually save between €2.1 million under M∞ and €0.8 million under M50 (€108 - €49 per herd). However, analysing herd-level data we found that 90% of all Irish breeding herds would save less than €1.42 per cow or €99 in total per annum under M∞ and €0.59 per cow or €36 in total under M50. In a sensitivity analysis, we allowed serology costs to vary between €2 and €10 per animal. Herds at the 10 t h percentile of most savings made from switching would save at most €155 (M∞ at €2 per serology test) but would not save anything under M50 at costs ≥ €10. We conclude that, under these assumptions, the expected reduction in testing costs for the majority of beneficiaries would barely outweigh the practical implications of the strategy switch or the risks to the eradication programme associated with sample based surveillance. This study does not assess the cost-effectiveness of alternatives post-eradication.

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Considerations on BVD eradication for the Irish livestock industry

2011, Barrett, Damien J., More, Simon John, Graham, David A., et al.

Animal Health Ireland has produced clear guidelines for the control of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) infection in Irish cattle herds. In the course of developing these guidelines it was clear that a framework for regional and/or national BVD control would be required to increase the uptake of BVD control at farm level and reduce the overall prevalence of the disease. This paper assessed the economic impact of BVD, epidemiological aspects of the disease to its control, models of BVD control, international experiences of BVD control programmes. The technical knowledge and test technology exists to eradicate BVD. Indeed, many countries have successfully and others are embarking on control of the disease. The identification and prompt elimination of PI cattle will form the basis of any control programme. The trade of such animals must be curtailed. Pregnant and potentially pregnant carrying PI foetuses pose a significant threat. International experience indicates systematic, well coordinated programmes have the most success, while voluntary programmes can make good initial progress but ultimately fail. The farming community must buy into any proposed programme, and without their support, failure is likely. To buy into the programme and create such a demand for BVD control, farmers must first be well informed. It is likely that stemming economic loss and improving productivity will be the primary motivator at individual farm level.

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A protocol to identify and minimise selection and information bias in abattoir surveys estimating prevalence, using Fasciola hepatica as an example

2017-09-01, Carroll, Rebecca I., Forbes, Andrew, Graham, David A., Messam, Locksley L. McV.

Abattoir surveys and findings from post-mortem meat inspection are commonly used to estimate infection or disease prevalence in farm animal populations. However, the function of an abattoir is to slaughter animals for human consumption, and the collection of information on animal health for research purposes is a secondary objective. This can result in methodological shortcomings leading to biased prevalence estimates. Selection bias can occur when the study population as obtained from the abattoir is not an accurate representation of the target population. Virtually all of the tests used in abattoir surveys to detect infections or diseases that impact animal health are imperfect, leading to errors in identifying the outcome of interest and consequently, information bias. Examination of abattoir surveys estimating prevalence in the literature reveals shortcomings in the methods used in these studies. While the STROBE-Vet statement provides clear guidance on the reporting of observational research, we have not found any guidelines in the literature advising researchers on how to conduct abattoir surveys. This paper presents a protocol in two flowcharts to help researchers (regardless of their background in epidemiology) to first identify, and, where possible, minimise biases in abattoir surveys estimating prevalence. Flowchart 1 examines the identification of the target population and the appropriate study population while Flowchart 2 guides the researcher in identifying, and, where possible, correcting potential sources of outcome misclassification. Examples of simple sensitivity analyses are also presented which approximate the likely uncertainty in prevalence estimates due to systematic errors. Finally, the researcher is directed to outline any limitations of the study in the discussion section of the paper. This protocol makes it easier to conduct an abattoir survey using sound methods, identifying and, where possible, minimizing biases.