The Interplay between Foreign Aid, Peacebuilding, and Post-conflict Stability

The research studies the impacts of foreign aid on post-conflict stability. There have been limited studies on the impacts of foreign aid on conflict when compared to other areas of development. This is particularly rare in post-conflict studies. Most of the studies make use of cross-country quantitative analyses and rational models. However, this research makes use of a mixed method approach. The research utilises georeferenced data from UCDP and AidData, and makes use of quantitative, geospatial, as well as qualitative and case study analyses of 4 states in 2 post-conflict regions in Nigeria – the South East and the South South Regions. The research also creates a novel method of measuring conflict relapse in large-scale quantitative and geospatial studies. The research finds that foreign aid enhances the likelihood of conflict relapse, particularly conflicts caused by political motives. However, foreign aid tends to reduce the tendencies of conflict relapse caused by socio-economic factors. This finding is supported by the qualitative evidence in the case study of Nigeria. The research also finds that the longer the duration of aid the more likely the aid will reduce the relapse of conflicts. Although this can create aid dependency and aid shocks when the aid is terminated. Furthermore, while the heterogeneity of aid can influence the relapse of conflicts, the research shows that the internal characteristics of the recipient states, particularly the causes of conflict would have a greater impact on aid effectiveness in post-conflict societies. The research additionally finds that bypassing government can create more challenges in post-conflict societies. However, a hybrid system that effectively involves the government, non-state actors, and particularly the end-users of aid is encouraged, especially in conflict-prone societies.