Now showing 1 - 9 of 9
  • Publication
    A portfolio analysis of industrial structure
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2003-03) ;
    Industrial sectors producing income-elastic products can grow rapidly but are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in the world economy. Policymakers need to take into account this trade-off between output and employment growth over the longer term and volatility in the short to medium term. We bring the principles of portfolio theory to bear on the issue. Our analysis is applied to Irish manufacturing employment where growth has been concentrated in foreign-owned sectors such as Office and Data Processing Equipment, Pharmaceuticals and Professional Instruments. We show that, increased volatility notwithstanding, the country’s hightech FDI-driven strategy has brought the economy’s industrial portfolio closer to the mean-variance efficiency frontier.
      306
  • Publication
    Media-expressed negative tone and firm-level stock returns
    We build a corpus of over 5½ million news articles on 20 large US firms over the 10-year period from January 2001 to December 2010, and use it to study the time-varying nature of the relation between media-expressed firm-specific tone and firm-level returns. By estimating a series of separate rolling window vector autoregressive (VAR) models for each firm, we show how media-expressed negative tone impacts firm-level returns episodically in ways that vary across firms and over time. We find that firms experience prolonged periods during which media-expressed tone has no effect on returns, and occasional episodes when it has a significant impact. During the significant episodes, its impacts are sometimes quickly reversed and at other times they endure — implying that media comment and analysis can sometimes be sentiment (or noise), but it can also contain value-relevant information or news. Our findings are in general consistent with efficiently functioning markets in which the media assists with the processing of complex information.
      1073Scopus© Citations 59
  • Publication
    Competitiveness implications for Ireland of EU enlargement
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2002-09) ; ; ;
    Ten states, primarily from Central and Eastern Europe, are likely to be admitted to the EU within the next few years. The present paper assesses the competitiveness implications of this enlargement for Ireland. Four specific topics are considered: the trade effects, the implications for Ireland's ability to attract FDI, the likely levels of immigration from Central and Eastern Europe and its consequences, and the budgetary implications for the Irish Exchequer.
      603
  • Publication
    Reassessing the evidence of an emerging Yen block in North and Southeast Asia
    (University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2005-05) ;
    Using weekly observations on 9 Asian currencies from November 1976 to December 2003, we re-examine the evidence of an emerging yen block in North and Southeast Asia. In contrast to previous research that assumes instantaneous adjustment of exchange rates by the region’s Central Banks to variations in the world’s main global currencies, we use a dynamic general-to-specific Newey-West estimation strategy that allows gradual adjustment and calculation of both short and long run equilibrium responses. We find that there is no de facto yen block, but although the US dollar remains dominant throughout the region, the yen’s influence is rising amongst a subset of the currencies since the early 1990s.
      373
  • Publication
    Can the traditional Asian US dollar peg exchange rate regime be extended to include the Japanese yen?
    (University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2006-06) ;
    Using daily data for a select set of four Asian exchange rates, namely the Hong Kong dollar, the Singapore dollar, the Taiwan dollar and the Thailand baht, from October 1985 to October 2002, we apply principal components analysis and the O-GARCH model to describe the evolution and persistence in the correlations over time. We also estimate 2-, 3- and 4-variable multivariate GARCH models, without imposing the assumption of constant correlations, to investigate volatility interaction amongst the currencies. To allow for fat tails in the distributions of exchange rate changes, we use the multivariate student-t distribution in maximising our log-likelihood functions. Our results indicate the possibility of designing an Asian exchange rate system involving a number of the region’s currencies.
      517
  • Publication
    Textual sentiment in finance: A survey of methods and models
    (Elsevier, 2014-05) ;
    We survey the textual sentiment literature, comparing and contrasting the various information sources, content analysis methods, and empirical models that have been used to date. We summarize the important and influential findings about how textual sentiment impacts on individual, firm-level and market-level behavior and performance, and vice versa. We point to what is agreed and what remains controversial. Promising directions for future research are emerging from the availability of more accurate and efficient sentiment measures resulting from increasingly sophisticated textual content analysis coupled with more extensive field-specific dictionaries. This is enabling more wide-ranging studies that use increasingly sophisticated models to help us better understand behavioral finance patterns across individuals, institutions and markets.
      5472Scopus© Citations 320
  • Publication
    Competitiveness implications for Ireland of EU enlargement
    (Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, 2003) ; ; ;
    Subject to ratification, a further ten states, primarily from Central and Eastern Europe will accede to the EU in May 2004. Another two, and possibly three, CEE states are likely to join in 2007. The present paper assesses the competitiveness implications of this phase of EU expansion for Ireland. Four specific topics are considered: the opportunities for trade and investment expansion, the implications for Ireland's ability to attract FDI, the likely levels and consequences of immigration from Central and Eastern Europe, and the budgetary implications for the Irish Exchequer.
      686
  • Publication
    The Irish Aviation Authority's cost of capital : report to the Commission for Aviation Regulation
    (Commission for Aviation Regulation, 2007-03) ;
    The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) approach is used to estimate the IAA's cost of capital. To implement this approach, it is necessary to estimate the IAA's cost of equity, its cost of debt and its gearing ratio. Following a brief financial summary, the cost of equity is discussed in Section 3, the cost of debt is discussed in Section 4, the IAA's gearing is discussed in Section 5, and Section 6 brings these together in the WACC calculations to derive the estimate of the IAA's cost of capital.
      927
  • Publication
    Is North and South East Asia becoming a Yen block?
    (University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2005) ;
    We examine the evidence of an emerging yen block in North and Southeast Asia using up to 27 years of weekly data on 9 bilateral yen exchange rates. The exchange rate returns are modelled in response to variations in their US dollar, German mark, and UK pound effective counterparts using a general-to-specific dynamic estimation strategy. We also investigate the pattern of regional trade integration over time. The results suggest increasing intra-regional trade integration, particularly regarding Japanese trade integration with the region. They also indicate the decreasing influence of the US dollar in terms of magnitude, the German mark in terms of scope and the UK pound in terms of both magnitude and scope with respect to exchange rate determination in the region. These findings are consistent with an emerging yen influence although not a defacto yen block.
      379