Now showing 1 - 10 of 88
  • Publication
    Real & nominal foreign exchange volatility effects on exports – the importance of timing
    (2009-11-19T16:30:10Z) ;
    This paper compares real and nominal foreign exchange volatility effects on exports. Using a flexible lag version of the Goldstein-Khan two-country imperfect substitutes model for bilateral trade, we identify the overall effect into both a timing as well as a size impact. We find that the size impact of forecasted foreign exchange volatility does not vary according to the measure used in terms of magnitude and direction. However, there are very different timing effects, when we compare real and nominal foreign exchange rate volatility.
  • Publication
    Housing risk and return : evidence from a housing asset-pricing model
    This paper investigates the risk-return relationship in determination of housing asset pricing. In so doing, the paper evaluates behavioral hypotheses advanced by Case and Shiller (1988, 2002, 2009) in studies of boom and post-boom housing markets. Assuming investment is restricted to housing, the paper specifies and tests a housing asset pricing model, whereby expected returns of metropolitan-specific housing markets are equated to the market return, as represented by aggregate US house price time-series. We augment the model by examining the impact of additional risk factors including aggregate stock market returns, idiosyncratic risk, momentum, and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) size effects. Further, we test the robustness of the asset pricing results to inclusion of controls for socioeconomic variables commonly represented in the house price literature, including changes in employment, affordability, and foreclosure incidence. We find a sizable and statistically significant influence of the market factor on MSA house price returns. Moreover we show that market betas have varied substantially over time. Also, we find the basic housing model results are robust to the inclusion of other explanatory variables, including standard measures of risk and other housing market fundamentals. Additional tests on the validity of the model using the Fama-MacBeth framework offer further strong support of a positive risk and return relationship in housing. Our findings are supportive of the application of a housing investment risk-return framework in explanation of variation in metro-area cross-section and time-series US house price returns. Further, results strongly corroborate Case-Shiller behavioral research indicating the importance of speculative forces in the determination of U.S. housing returns.
  • Publication
    Margin requirements with intraday dynamics
    (University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2004-06-14) ;
    Both in practice and in the academic literature, models for setting margin requirements in futures markets use daily closing price changes. However, financial markets have recently shown high intraday volatility, which could bring more risk than expected. Such a phenomenon is well documented in the literature on high-frequency data and has prompted some exchanges to set intraday margin requirements and ask intraday margin calls. This article proposes to set margin requirements by taking into account the intraday dynamics of market prices. Daily margin levels are obtained in two ways: first, by using daily price changes defined with different time-intervals (say from 3 pm to 3 pm on the following trading day instead of traditional closing times); second, by using 5-minute and 1-hour price changes and scaling the results to one day. An application to the FTSE 100 futures contract traded on LIFFE demonstrates the usefulness of this new approach.
  • Publication
    Realized volatility and minimum capital requirements
    (Money Macro and Finance Research Group, 2003)
    Key to the imposition of appropriate minimum capital requirements on a daily basis requires accurate volatility estimation. Here, measures are presented based on discrete estimation of aggregated high frequency UK futures realisations underpinned by a continuous time framework. Squared and absolute returns are incorporated into the measurement process so as to rely on the quadratic variation of a diffusion process and be robust in the presence of fat tails. The realized volatility estimates incorporate the long memory property. The dynamics of the volatility variable are adequately captured. Resulting rescaled returns are applied to minimum capital requirement calculations.
  • Publication
    Uncovering volatility dynamics in daily REIT returns
    (University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2004) ;
    Using a time-varying approach, this paper examines the dynamics of volatility in the REIT sector. The results highlight the attractiveness and suitability of using GARCH based approaches in the modeling of daily REIT volatility. The paper examines the influencing factors on REIT volatility, documenting the return and volatility linkages between REIT sub-sectors and also examines the influence of other US equity series. The results contrast with previous studies of monthly REIT volatility. Linkages within the REIT sector and with related sectors such as value stocks are diminished, while the general influence of market sentiment, coming through the large cap indices is enhanced. This would indicate that on a daily basis general market sentiment plays a more fundamental role than more intuitive relationships within the capital markets.
  • Publication
    Financial risks and the Pension Protection Fund : can it survive them?
    (University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2006-11) ; ;
    This paper discusses the financial risks faced by the UK Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and what, if anything, it can do about them. It draws lessons from the regulatory regimes under which other financial institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, operate and asks why pension funds are treated differently. It also reviews the experience with other government-sponsored insurance schemes, such as the US Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, upon which the PPF is modelled. We conclude that the PPF will live under the permanent risk of insolvency as a consequence of the moral hazard, adverse selection, and, especially, systemic risks that it faces.
  • Publication
    Volatility and Irish exports
    (University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2004-10-12) ;
    We analyse the impact of volatility per se on exports for a a small open economy concentrating on Irish trade with the UK and the US. An important element is that we take account of the time lag between the trade decision and the actual trade or payments taking place by using a flexible lag approach. Rather than adopt a single measure of risk we also adopt a spectrum of risk measures and detail varied size characteristics and statistical properties. We find that the ambiguous results found to date may well be due to not taking account of the timing effect which varies substantially depending on which volatility measure is used. However, the foreign exchange volatility effect is consistently positive, indicating the dominance of exporters expectations of possible profitable opportunities from future cash flows. The potential negative aspects of trade, the entry and exit costs, are accounted for by a negative influence of income volatility on trade.
  • Publication
    Hedging effectiveness under conditions of asymmetry
    (University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2007) ;
    We examine whether hedging effectiveness is affected by asymmetry in the return distribution by applying tail specific metrics to compare the hedging effectiveness of short and long hedgers using crude oil futures contracts. The metrics used include Lower Partial Moments (LPM), Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVAR). Comparisons are applied to a number of hedging strategies including OLS and both Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH models. Our findings show that asymmetry reduces in-sample hedging performance and that there are significant differences in hedging performance between short and long hedgers. Thus, tail specific performance metrics should be applied in evaluating hedging effectiveness. We also find that the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model provides consistently good performance across different measures of hedging effectiveness and estimation methods irrespective of the characteristics of the underlying distribution.
  • Publication
    Extreme returns are important
    (Henry Stewart Publications, 2004)
    Focuses on the importance of the accurate modelling of market risk. Dates of extreme trading events experienced by derivative traders; Standard approach to modelling any market movement and its implications; Use of extreme value theory in providing accurate tail risk measures.