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Spatial Bayesian hierarchical modelling of extreme sea states

Author(s)
Clancy, Colm  
O'Sullivan, J. J.  
Sweeney, Conor  
Dias, Frédéric  
Parnell, Andrew C.  
Uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10197/10883
Date Issued
2016-11
Date Available
2019-07-11T09:17:31Z
Abstract
A Bayesian hierarchical framework is used to model extreme sea states, incorporating a latent spatial process to more effectively capture the spatial variation of the extremes. The model is applied to a 34-year hindcast of significant wave height off the west coast of Ireland. The generalised Pareto distribution is fitted to declustered peaks over a threshold given by the 99.8th percentile of the data. Return levels of significant wave height are computed and compared against those from a model based on the commonly-used maximum likelihood inference method. The Bayesian spatial model produces smoother maps of return levels. Furthermore, this approach greatly reduces the uncertainty in the estimates, thus providing information on extremes which is more useful for practical applications.
Sponsorship
Environmental Protection Agency
European Research Council
Science Foundation Ireland
Type of Material
Journal Article
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal
Ocean Modelling
Volume
107
Start Page
1
End Page
13
Copyright (Published Version)
2016 Elsevier
Subjects

Bayesian hierarchical...

Spatial modelling

Extreme value analysi...

Ocean waves

Significant wave heig...

DOI
10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.09.015
Language
English
Status of Item
Peer reviewed
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/
File(s)
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spatial_bayesian_preprint.pdf

Size

12.56 MB

Format

Adobe PDF

Checksum (MD5)

3ff1bb5758b2ef4d56765c6b44341f0d

Owning collection
Insight Research Collection
Mapped collections
Earth Institute Research Collection•
Mathematics and Statistics Research Collection

Item descriptive metadata is released under a CC-0 (public domain) license: https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/cc0/.
All other content is subject to copyright.

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