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Spatial Bayesian hierarchical modelling of extreme sea states
Date Issued
2016-11
Date Available
2019-07-11T09:17:31Z
Abstract
A Bayesian hierarchical framework is used to model extreme sea states, incorporating a latent spatial process to more effectively capture the spatial variation of the extremes. The model is applied to a 34-year hindcast of significant wave height off the west coast of Ireland. The generalised Pareto distribution is fitted to declustered peaks over a threshold given by the 99.8th percentile of the data. Return levels of significant wave height are computed and compared against those from a model based on the commonly-used maximum likelihood inference method. The Bayesian spatial model produces smoother maps of return levels. Furthermore, this approach greatly reduces the uncertainty in the estimates, thus providing information on extremes which is more useful for practical applications.
Sponsorship
Environmental Protection Agency
European Research Council
Science Foundation Ireland
Type of Material
Journal Article
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal
Ocean Modelling
Volume
107
Start Page
1
End Page
13
Copyright (Published Version)
2016 Elsevier
Language
English
Status of Item
Peer reviewed
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
File(s)
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Name
spatial_bayesian_preprint.pdf
Size
12.56 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
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