Now showing 1 - 10 of 90
  • Publication
    Explaining the investment boom of the 1990s
    (Blackwell on behalf of the Ohio State University Press, 2003-02) ;
    Real equipment investment in the United States boomed in the 1990s, led by soaring investment in computers. We find that traditional aggregate econometric models completely fail to capture the magnitude of this growth—mainly because these models neglect to address two features that were crucial (and unique) to the 1990s' investment boom. First. the pace at which firms replace depreciated capital increased. Second, investment was more sensitive to the cost of capital. We document that these two features stem from the special behavior of investment in computers and therefore propose a disaggregated approach. This produces an econometric model that successfully explains the 1990s' equipment investment boom.
      555
  • Publication
    Explaining the investment boom of the 1990s
    (Federal Reserve, 2000-02-07)
    Real equipment investment in the United States has boomed in recent years, led by soaring investment in computers. We find that traditional aggregate econometric models completely fail to capture the magnitude of this recent growth - mainly because these models neglect to address two features that are crucial (and unique) to the current investment boom. First, the pace at which firms replace depreciated capital has increased. Second, investment has been more sensitive to the cost of capital. We document that these two features stem from the special behavior of investment in computers and therefore propose a disaggregated approach. This produces an econometric model that successfully explains the 1990s equipment investment boom.
      412
  • Publication
    A note on the cointegration of consumption, income, and wealth
    (Central Bank of Ireland, 2002-11) ;
    Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) argue that a log-linearized approximation to an aggregate budget constraint predicts that log consumption, assets, and labour income will be cointegrated. They conclude that this cointegrating relationship is present in U.S. data, and that the estimated cointegrating residual forecasts future asset growth. This note examines whether the cointegrating relationship suggested by Lettau and Ludvigson's theoretical framework actually exists. We demonstrate that we cannot reject the hypothesis that cointegration is absent from the data once we employ measures of consumption, assets, and labor income that are jointly consistent with an underlying budget constraint. By contrast, Lettau and Ludvigson use a set of variables that do not belong together in an aggregate budget constraint, thereby testing a cointegrating relationship that is not implied by their theory.
      559
  • Publication
    An overview of monetary policy in the US
    (Central Bank of Ireland, 2002)
    With the introduction of monetary union, the US Federal Reserve system has become a common reference point against which to compare the procedures and policies of the fledgling ECB. This paper provides a brief overview of US monetary policy. The paper discusses the legal and institutional structures underpinning the Federal Reserve system, the process by which policy decisions are made, and the strategy that the Federal Reserve has used in implementing monetary policy in recent years.
      209
  • Publication
    Balanced growth revisited : a two-sector model of economic growth
    (Federal Reserve, 2000-12-05)
    The one-sector Solow-Ramsey model is the most popular model of long-run economic growth. This paper argues that a two-sector approach, which distinguishes the durable goods sector from the rest of the economy, provides a far better picture of the long-run behavior of the U.S. economy. Real durable goods output has consistently grown faster than the rest of the economy. Because most investment spending is on durable goods, the one-sector model's hypothesis of balanced growth, so that the real aggregates for consumption, investment, output, and the capital stock all grow at the same rate in the long run, is rejected by U.S. data. In addition, to model these aggregates as currently constructed in the U.S. National Accounts, a two-sector approach is required. Implications for empirical macroeconomics are explored.
      2818
  • Publication
    Modelling inflation dynamics : a critical review of recent research
    (Central Bank of Ireland, 2005-11) ;
    In recent years, a broad academic consensus has arisen around the use of rational expectations sticky-price models to capture inflation dynamics. These models are seen as providing an empirically reasonable characterization of observed inflation behavior once suitable measures of the output gap are chosen; and, moreover, are perceived to be robust to the Lucas critique in a way that earlier econometric models of inflation are not. We review the principal conclusions of this literature concerning: 1) the ability of these models to fit the data; 2) the importance of rational forward-looking expectations in price setting; and 3) the appropriate measure of inflationary pressures. We argue that existing rational expectations sticky-price models fail to provide a useful empirical description of the inflation process, especially relative to traditional econometric Phillips curves of the sort commonly employed for policy analysis.
      1772
  • Publication
    Staggered price contracts and inflation persistence : some general results
    (Central Bank of Ireland, 2004-10)
    Despite their popularity as theoretical tools for illustrating the effects of nominal rigidities, some have questioned whether models based on Taylor-style staggered contracts can match the persistence of the empirical inflation process. This paper presents some general theoretical results about the Taylor-style models. It is shown that these models do not have a problem matching high autocorrelations for inflation. However, they fail to explain a key feature of reduced-form Phillips-curve regressions: The positive dependence of inflation on its own lags. It is shown that staggered price contracting models instead predict that the coefficients on these lag terms should be negative.
      408
  • Publication
    Economic geography and the long-run effects of the Great Irish Famine
    (Economic and Social Research Institute, 1999)
    One of the most important debates in Irish economic history has concerned the long-run effects of the Great Irish Famine, with some arguing that it had only temporary effects on the economy and others seeing it as a major demographic and economic watershed. This paper adapts the theoretical framework of Krugman (1991) to illustrate how the combination of the Famine and developments in transportation and the demand for industrial products may have worked together to cause persistent depopulation and relative industrial decline.
      400
  • Publication
    Has Euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?
    (European Central Bank, 2004-04) ;
    This paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for Euro-area inflation since 1970, focusing in particular on the behaviour of the so-called persistence parameter (the sum of the coefficients on the lagged dependent variables). Perhaps surprisingly, in light of the Lucas critique, our principal finding is that there appears to be relatively little instability in the parameters of the Euro-area inflation process. Full-sample estimates of the persistence parameter are generally close to one, and we fail to reject the hypothesis that this parameter has been stable over time. We discuss how these results provide some indirect evidence against rational expectations models with strong forward-looking elements, such as the New-Keynesian Phillips curve.
      618
  • Publication
    Ireland’s economic crisis - the good, the bad and the ugly
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2013-07)
    This paper provides an overview of Ireland’s macroeconomic performance over the past decade. In addition, to presenting the underlying facts about the boom, bust and (currently limited) recovery, the paper also discusses some common fallacies and misrepresentations of economic events in Ireland. The paper concludes with some broader lessons from the Irish experience for Eurozone economic policy and some observations on the role that EMU and the ECB have played in Ireland’s crisis.
      1423